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Area Forecast Discussion (glossary)
FXUS65 KREV 242200
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008
.SHORT TERM...
MODELS ONCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MAINTAINING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE CNTRL U.S. INTO
THE SWRN U.S. SHOULD LIMIT ANY LOW/MID LVL MSTR RETURN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST WITH LIMITED
CLOUDS...CONFINED MAINLY TO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE A FEW
CU BUILD UPS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LITTLE DISCREPANCY IN TEMP
FORECASTS AS MODELS MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH H500 HEIGHTS WITH ONLY A
MINOR DECREASE IN HEIGHTS BY SUNDAY AS TROF JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
TRIES TO EDGE A LITTLER CLOSER TO THE RGN. SO WILL KEEP TEMPS 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY.
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM CA FIRES STILL AN ISSUE ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST
CONCENTRATIONS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH IN CA AND NORTH AND WEST
OF I-80 IN NV. WITH LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS AND TYPICAL
AFTN WESTERLIES THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST SEE NO REASON SMOKE/HAZE
WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. MLF
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STILL LOOKING AT SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DAYS 4-7...ALTHOUGH NEW 12Z ECMWF LOOKS PROMISINGLY CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE REMAINS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE THAT WILL GET PULLED AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND THESE BAROCLINIC
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE TRANSITION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID LATITUDES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...AND OVERALL LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
ONGOING FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TUES/WED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DOLLY/MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOON
.AVIATION...
MINIMAL CONCERNS WITH TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT THE TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOON
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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